Weak domestic demand weighs on Chinese economy, says Moody’s


Figures from China on Wednesday are likely to provide more evidence that economic growth is slowing. Industrial production slowed to a 3.4% year-on-year increase last month from the 3.5% rise in October, according to Moody’s Analytics. It forecasts a 4.8% growth in retail trade after the 4.9% gain in October.

“We expect the expansion of China’s manufacturing sector to be modest in the coming months,” said Katrina Ell, senior economist at Moody’s. “Even though power shortages have eased recently, high input prices will persist through the first half of 2022, and weak domestic demand could be a drag in the longer term. Continued government support is needed to stabilize prices and provide liquidity to help manufacturers stay afloat, ”she said.

Thursday’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) release is expected to show New Zealand’s economy turned negative in the three months leading up to September. GDP contracted 4.5% in quarterly terms, after rising 2.7% in the second quarter, Moody’s said.

“The resurgence of Covid-19 cases has triggered the reimposition of movement restrictions since August, hampering the strong recovery momentum in the economy,” Ell said. “A notable drop in spending from the previous quarter should have resulted in the quarterly contraction. It is temporary. A strong rebound is estimated during the December quarter, a symptom of the resumption of New Zealand’s strong economic recovery, ”she said.

Australia and Hong Kong released unemployment data on Thursday. Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 5% last month, from 5.2% in October, according to Moody’s forecast, while Hong Kong saw 4.2% of the labor force jobless, from 4.3 % the preceding month.

The Bank of Japan holds its monthly meeting on Friday with no expected changes in monetary policy. Rates are expected to remain negative at -0.1% and the central bank is expected to continue buying Japanese exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts, although policymakers have talked about phasing out pandemic relief loans, which are due to expire next March. year.

  • Keywords: Chinese economy, Moody

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